ATD2019 FINALS - New Jersey Swamp Devils vs. Chicago Shamrocks

Discussion in 'All Time Draft' started by BenchBrawl, May 23, 2019.

  1. BenchBrawl

    BenchBrawl joueur de hockey

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    New Jersey Swamp Devils

    Coach: Joel Quenneville
    Dominik Hasek
    Hap Holmes
    Spares: Russell Bowie (C), Bobby Bauer (RW), Todd Bertuzzi (LW/RW), Kevin Hatcher (D)

    PP1: Bill Cowley - Newsy Lalonde - Maurice Richard - Harry Cameron - Alex Delvecchio
    PP2: Bun Cook - Mickey MacKay - Helmuts Balderis - Duncan Keith - Earl Seibert


    PK1: Guy Carbonneau - Tony Leswick - Duncan Keith - Earl Seibert
    PK2: Mickey MacKay - Ace Bailey - Babe Siebert - Alex Pietrangelo

    Style: Attacking team with a defensive conscience. All 6 defensemen are capable of moving the puck up ice, secure in the knowledge that if they get caught, they have the best goalie ever at stopping odd-man rushes. This is helped by the fact that the Swamp Devils have a LH and RH shot playing together at all times - ES, SH, PP.

    vs.

    Chicago Shamrocks
    [​IMG]
    Coach: Fred Shero
    Patrick Elias - Milt Schmidt (A) - Guy Lafleur
    Sweeney Schriner - Joe Malone - Cecil Dillon
    Brad Marchand - Neil Colville - Claude Provost
    Zach Parise - Edgar Laprade - Ryan Kesler

    Spares: Pat Lafontaine, Bob Davidson
    Vladislav Tretiak
    Rogie Vachon

    Special Teams
    PP1: Schriner - Malone - Lafleur - Subban - Kelly
    PP2: Elias - Schmidt - Parise - Gardiner - Boucher

    PK1: Kesler - Dillon - Stevens - Neilson
    PK2: Laprade - Provost/Colville - Gardiner - Boucher
    Extra F: Schmidt, Marchand
    Extra D: Kelly
     
  2. BenchBrawl

    BenchBrawl joueur de hockey

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    Good luck gentlemen
     
  3. BenchBrawl

    BenchBrawl joueur de hockey

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  4. Dreakmur

    Dreakmur Registered User

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    ImporterExporter likes this.
  5. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    2 Lineup Changes for Chicago

    At Forward
    Out: Zach Parise
    In: Bob Davidson

    Davidson will play on the 4th line, which makes the it more of a pure shutdown line, although Laprade and Kesler do have some minor offensive threat. Davidson is specifically being inserted to help check Maurice Richard

    Bio Quotes on Davidson vs. Richard

    Calgary Herald: 1-26-1981 said:
    Ottawa Citizen: 11-15-1945 said:
    Montreal Gazette: 12-20-1949 said:
    Comments from @nik jr
    Newspapers described how Richard dominated when Davidson was on the bench:

    Montreal Gazette: 3-24-1944 said:
    The Maple Leaf: 4-13-1944 said:
    *Brad Marchand will take Parise's spot on the 2nd PP unit.


    On Defense
    In: Red Dutton
    Out: PK Subban

    Dutton will play next to Jim Neilson on the 3rd Pairing. The reason for this lineup change is to bring more physicality/toughness to the blue line. Over a long series, I think this will one be needed in dealing with some of New Jersey's more physical/aggressive forwards like Lalonde and Richard, and then on the other hand, will wear down New Jersey's softer/smaller 2nd/3rd line centers, Cowley and MacKay

    *Georges Boucher will take Subban's place on the top PP unit
    **Neil Colville will take Boucher's place on the second PP unit (Colville finished his career playing D)
    ***Dutton will take Boucher's place on the second PK unit (reuniting him with his real life partner Herb Gardiner)
     
    Last edited: May 29, 2019
  6. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    Congrats to @TheDevilMadeMe on making the Finals. Here's to a good series!
     
  7. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    I don't mind being transparent but I think HT has the best team in this draft by a decent margin.

    Also good call on pulling Subban (not that a #6 D is a huge deal). I just can't place him in the ATD. He's one of the most overrated players of the current era. Turnover prone, gaffes galore. Wouldn't trust him against the best of the best, but that's just me.
     
  8. ted2019

    ted2019 Registered User

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    I agree and I think it's not even close.
     
  9. VanIslander

    VanIslander Don't waste my time

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    I still dunno how the hell my Orr & Bowman team doesn't win this thing.

    In 15 years in ATDs I've never iced a better team. I think I'm done.
     
  10. Dreakmur

    Dreakmur Registered User

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    I wish you were this interested in our series while it was going on. Some quality debate would have been nice.
     
    seventieslord likes this.
  11. VanIslander

    VanIslander Don't waste my time

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    I put a lot of care and attention (time and effort) into my pick announcement posts, getting up often at 3am my time to do so, spending time and effort to assemble info and link it to each pick in my lineup.

    I assume people click a pick before commenting. Several times over the years they clearly didn't even bother to do that one little thing.

    I think dropping names when picking then pimping guys in the playoffs may be a more successful strategy if win-all is the main goal.

    I get a lot out of the process. I just may not bother to go out of my way to provide info on why i like guys so much (in future drafts). If i start just dropping names it won't make much of a difference if people don't read my posts anyways when they're linked.

    The speed and chemistry of the squad i assembled is staggering. I profiled the info on it in my linked picks. No one commented on either aspect.

    Anyways...

    The Chicago Shamrocks represents my conference in this final series. I wish them the best.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2019
  12. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    I know I will not have any time to post today, but all going well, I should have some time tomorrow afternoon or evening, if voters want to to wait.
     
  13. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    Well, I hope I didn't tank any chance I had by not posting until now. I've been busy moving the last week+

    Anyway, I have a bit of time now, so here goes.
     
  14. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    Chicago's 1st PP unit is very soft, and their 2nd line is fairly soft, as well. How will they fair against NJ's large defensemen?

    1. NJ's penalty killers against Chicago's PP, which is soft up front:

    Chicago's 1st PP unit is very soft up front, with Schriner and Lafleur as highly talented perimeter players, and Joe Malone reading something like a Brett Hull style "ghost," who can "disappear" and reappear in great scoring position. Who is getting the dirty goals on this unit against a NJ powerplay that features physically strong beasts like Seibert and Siebert?

    2. Chicago's 2nd line is fairly soft in general, seeming to rely on Dillon for most of the tough stuff. Again, NJ's defense features huge men in Seibert, Siebert, and Patrick on the ice at all times.
     
  15. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    Considering the largest differences between these teams are in goal (NJ's favor) and at #1 D (Chicago's favor), and you have been the biggest pusher of the "goalies are underrated in the ATD" crowd, this statement surprised me at first.

    Then I remembered that you have some inexplicable dislike (is that the right word?) of Maurice Richard. :)
     
  16. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    Will the conservative Fred Shero make full use of Red Kelly?

    Both coaches here are decent, but not perfect, fits for their teams. However, I think a possible disconnect between Chicago's best player, the high-flying, smooth-skating Red Kelly, and the hard-hitting, defensive systems that Shero usually used, is the bigger disconnect.

    "Gamebreakers" are in favor of NJ.

    In a close series, players with the ability to single-handedly take over a game can make a big difference. NJ has the two best players in the series in Maurice Richard and Dominik Hasek, both of whom can take over games by themselves. Does Chicago have any gamebreakers at the ATD level? Maybe Red Kelly... maybe not.
     
  17. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    I don't dislike Richard. You must be confusing me with someone else. I think I had him 9th in the top 100 project.

    I also think Chicago's defense, especially top pairing, is vastly better. There is a wider gap on defense then in net where I think Tretiak is insanely underrated all time. Hasek is better, obviously, but in a 7 game series, i don't give Dom a big bump over Vlad.

    Chicago has major league thumpers on each pair with Stevens, Gardiner and Dutton. Coupled with elite puck movers relative to the 1st and 2nd pairing in Kelly and Boucher, but rather lacking after pulling Subban for Dutton (right call in this matchup). Whereas I think NJ doesn't have an elite puck mover on the top pair but does so on 2nd and 3rd. Seibert was a good offensive dman but certainly not elite relative to who's he's going up against here, or all time, IMO.

    Chicago has better defensive players at F IMO, which always goes overlooked. His top scoring W's are more potent than NJ with NJ holding a slight advantage in scoring depth down the middle.

    The only real advantage I see for NJ is in net and it would have needed to be a massive one to overcome Chicago's top end+depth at F and D.

    And not to get picky, because I think that's exactly what cost me a title last year, but I'm not holding a "few players aren't perfect fits" against GM's even though I could just be a prick.

    Elite players could play anywhere, in any era, for anyone. Fred Shero wouldn't scoff at the chance to have Red Kelly anchoring his D just as Tommy Gorman wouldn't have disliked having Wayne Gretzky's offensive brilliance, especially considering Gorman never got to coach anyone with even a fraction of Gretzky's offensive abilities. It's revisionist nonsense and a real grease ball way to try and undermine another GM. We're not talking about teams (once you reach the final) where fit is a major player. No team has EVER had a perfectly built squad relative to their coach.

    But that's just me.
     
  18. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    Chicago's 1st pairing is their major strength, but NJ has a better second pairing, with Herb Gardiner easily the worst player in either team's top 4. Gardiner's stock should fall somewhat now that we know that NHL GMs only voted him a 2nd Team All-Star the season he won the Hart.

    I really don't see what you're seeing.

    Richard (NJ) > Lafleur (Chicago)

    Delvecchio (NJ) > Schriner (Chicago) - Schriner was better offensively, but Delvecchio was the better all-round player, better in the playoffs, much better staying power

    Elias (Chicago) > Balderus (NJ) - basically the reverse as above - Balderus better offensively, but Elias the better all-round player, better in the playoffs, better staying power.

    Dillon (Chicago) => Noble (NJ) - Both strong, not elite defensively, Dillon's greater offense PROBABLY more than makes up for Noble's toughness. But maybe not, as Noble was clearly a significantly bigger star in his era than Dillon was.
     
  19. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I'm actually a little surprised that this is the first time I've had to defend the weird way I set up NJ's top 6 forwards. Richard is the best winger in the series, and Lalonde is the best center in the series. But they are both goal-heavy, so I had to split them up.

    NJ is a very star-heavy team, with complimentary players drafted to make best use of those stars.

    I do think as a whole, NJ's top 6 is a little better than Chicago's.
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2019
  20. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    Why is Richard superior to Lafleur offensively?

    Guy has a better 7 year VsX and led the playoffs in scoring 3 consecutive years. At their peaks, Lafleur was every bit as dynamic an offensive player as Richard. Richard was the better goal scorer, and lasted longer (more Cups) so he's rated more highly as he should be but in terms of straight offensive value, he's not really above Lafleur.

    Schriner is another guy who is simply a better peak offensive player than Delvecchio. The 7 year VsX illustrates that and again, like Richard this is more of a peak vs longevity question which I really don't care about when we're talking about a 7 game series.

    IF we're evaluating offense, Chicago is simply better. At least when looking at 7 year scoring averages. Claude Provost is one of the most underrated players ever, because he was a very high end defensive player who was exceptionally strong as an even strength scorer. That Chicago 3rd line is just nasty. Can defend at a high level and score as well as a bottom 6 unit. Marchand is really ascending as an all time player/pest.

    And defensively speaking I think Chicago's forwards are better top to bottom as well.

    And yes NJ has the better 2nd pairing but the top 3 Dmen for Chicago are collectively much better than NJ's and they're the big minute players. The guys who are going to impact the game the most.

    Kelly, Stevens and Boucher is >> Seibert, Keith, Siebert
     
  21. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    I can't believe I'm actually responding seriously to someone who thinks that Richard vs Lafleur is actually worth debating, but in 10 year VsX (the preferred standard for post-expansion players like Lafleur), Maurice kills Guy 97.9 - 91.0, despite playing at a time when careers tended to be shorter (hence the usual preference for 7 year VsX for comparisons involving any pre-expansion players), and that's without getting into a discussion of the value of a goal vs an assist.

    NJ's 3rd line is better offensively than Chicago's, because of the respective centers, though Chicago is also quite good. Bun Cook has the highest VsX score of any winger on either 3rd line, but I'm not sure he's better than Marchand because of the linemate factor. Ace Bailey and Claude Provost have almost identical VsX scores, but it's such an awkward comparison due to Bailey's single outlier season and the Henri Richard factor for Provost. (Obviously Provost is a better all-round player than Bailey, due to defense).

    George Boucher is no better than Babe Siebert. (I just checked and they finished back-to-back on the HOH defensemen list... seems appropriate to me). Chicago's advantage on the top pairing is quite large, but that's where it stops.

    Like, seriously, HT has a great team (one of my 3 favorites in the draft along with Dreakmur's and my own), and there are good reasons to vote for him, but some of this stuff is really out there.

    But yes, if all you care about is 7-season VsX, then Lafleur and Schriner look super.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2019
  22. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    There is some rather hyperbolic stuff above IMO and I'll address it later this evening....
     
  23. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    You acting like it is some travesty that there is an offensive comparison being made between Maurice Richard and Guy Lafleur is just too much. I'm not trying to compare Mark Recchi to the Rocket here.

    Richard rates higher than Lafleur because of goals, longevity and cup wins. I have no issue with that.

    But Lafleur does beat Richard head to head in a 7 year study. And 8 points over 10 years is not "Richard killing" GL either for multiple reasons, IMO.

    One, Richard's most iconic season (50 in 50) is one of the most overrated historical bullet points that people boast about. It was the height of WWII, the league was drastically depleted of talent and only the Habs remained essentially intact. Richard never once touched 50 in any other season, even when the length of the season stretched to 70 games. He never even really got THAT close to 50 after 1945 anyway.

    Two, Lafleur suffered bad injuries in a car crash that absolutely affected his abilities. He was 29 I believe when it happened.

    Lafleur led the league in scoring 3 times (consecutive btw) something Richard never did once. Lafleur led the league in both goal scoring and assists, something Richard never did. Lafleur won more Hart trophies. Both peaked with 6 consecutive 1st team AS finishes, although Richard absolutely wins when looking at longevity there.

    But given the nature of the ATD format (7 game series) I'm much more inclined to look at peak/7 year averages/playoff performances. The 10 year stuff doesn't hold as much weight because the format we choose to use puts a greater emphasis on postseason play/or big game play if you will and peak.

    Now, Richard is clearly the better postseason player. Not by a massive margin, because Lafleur was fantastic as well, Richard simply did it for longer and cup counting helps his cause certainly.

    I just don't see much of a difference in offensive value here. Not in a 7 game series. Richard is more goal scoring dependent whereas Lafleur sacrifices some of that for superior play making.

    NJ's 3rd line is marginally better offensively, but inferior defensively, which I've come to value more and more the longer I study these things, in large part because I think people neglect the value that exists in F's playing a major defensive role. In a close race, I'm going with the defensive value over offensive.

    Which is why I think Chicago is so damn good here.

    They have elite offensive producers (relative to the line #) on the 1st line (Lafleur) and 2nd lines (Malone and Schriner) and their bottom 6 features strong even strength scorers like Marchand and Provost, all while retaining good to elite stoppers on each line as well (Schmidt, Dillon, Colville, Provost, Laprade and Kesler).

    Given NJ's relatively average top pairing (in a 20 team draft) I'd almost be inclined to split Stevens down to the 2nd pairing with Boucher because even with Gardiner up top with Kelly I'd still prefer that (because I love Kelly) to Keith-Seibert, although not by much. Then again, Stevens-Boucher would be miles better than Siebert/Cameron.

    I think Chicago has the better Captain in Stevens (vs Lalonde).

    I don't see much of a difference in valuation of the coaches.

    NJ's biggest hope is that Hasek just goes 98 Olympics, which could happen, but Hasek is primarily known for his regular season accolades vs postseason. Had the goalie gap been bigger here I'd put this match up down as tight but Tretiak is a firm top 10 goalie ever (One can argue as high as 6th or 7th) with a stellar resume, domestically or on the international stage, best on best.
     
  24. ImporterExporter

    ImporterExporter I troll harder than Poppy

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    And as someone who can vote, I wish we'd be more open to using a transparent playoff voting process. Keeping ballots private doesn't rule out biases. I'd rather see people have to put something down to justify their reasoning. Or just the fact that I think it makes for a more complete process and would be something new to help spice things up (auction draft please).

    No personal attacks, after all this is just a fantasy endeavor haha. I miss the days when the ATD was vibrant with banter. The golden age!
     
  25. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    A car crash that was Lafleur's own damn fault for partying and driving drunk all the time. For whatever that's worth.

    I mean, I don't think we should overly punish Lafleur for that, but I don't think we should use the crash to excuse his shortcomings, either.

    7 game series = let's only use 7 year VsX! is one of the goofiest uses of statistics I've seen here in awhile. And it's not at all how the VsX formula was intended to be used.

    I think NJ's 3rd line is at least as good defensively as Chicago's because Mickey MacKay - something of a Nighbor-lite player - is the best defensive forward on either team in open ice. Provost was one of the best shadows of all-time (though according to Provost himself, his defensive ability took a dive when he was given a bigger offensive role), but who is he shadowing here? Basically, MacKay was quite a bit better than Colville at both ends of the ice. In a situation where there isn't a LW for Provost to shadow, I would take NJ's 3rd line at both ends of the ice, but it is quite close.
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2019

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