C Alex Turcotte - USNTDP, USHL (2019, 5th, LAK)

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by Pavel Buchnevich, Nov 11, 2017.

  1. William H Bonney

    William H Bonney Registered User

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    NTDP players reported to Plymouth last weekend and they've since gone through measurements to start the season, which you can find here.

    The AAPG roster announcement uses old measurements.
     
  2. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    TY for that link
     
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  3. wings5

    wings5 Registered User

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    Won't believe it until I see multiple sources, if he is indeed 6'2 I'd have to think this pushes him into the top 3 prospects to start the season anyways.
     
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  4. William H Bonney

    William H Bonney Registered User

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    While I understand the hesitancy, it's not really rationale for two reasons:
    • 16/17 year olds grow
    • The NTDP is not known for inflating its measurements
    Let's look at last year's U18 team by comparing their measurements from the NTDP (to start the season) and the NHL Combine (to end the season):

    Name
    Height (NTDP)
    Height (Combine)
    Difference (in)
    Weight (NTDP)
    Weight (Combine)
    Difference (lb)
    Bode Wilde​
    6'2​
    6'2 1/2​
    0.5​
    195​
    197.92​
    2.92​
    Patrick Giles​
    6'4​
    6'4 1/4​
    0.25​
    205​
    200.8​
    -4.2​
    Mattias Samuelsson​
    6'4​
    6'4​
    0​
    217​
    218.36​
    1.36​
    Jake Wise​
    5'10​
    5'10​
    0​
    189​
    195.3​
    6.3​
    Ty Emberson​
    6'1​
    6'0 1/2​
    -0.5​
    194​
    199.58​
    5.58​
    Oliver Wahlstrom​
    6'1​
    6'1 1/4​
    0.25​
    205​
    208.38​
    3.38​
    Jon Gruden​
    5'11​
    5'11 3/4​
    0.75​
    172​
    169.4​
    -2.6​
    Jake Pivonka​
    6'0​
    5'11 3/4​
    -0.25​
    198​
    201.34​
    3.34​
    Tyler Weiss​
    5'11​
    5'10 1/2​
    -0.5​
    158​
    150.54​
    -7.46​
    Joel Farabee​
    5'11​
    6'0​
    1.0​
    162​
    161.66​
    -0.34​
    K'Andre Miller​
    6'3​
    6'3 1/4​
    0.25​
    206​
    198.48​
    -7.52​
    Only 3 players measured in at a smaller height and those were all negligible differences that are likely just a combination of the slight inconsistencies in measurement practices and rounding issues. For example, let's look at the two players with the largest height discrepancies at 0.5 inches each:
    • Ty Emberson:
      • NTDP had him at 185 cm or 6'1. 185 cm is actually 6 feet and 0.83 inches, which the NTDP rounded up to 6'1 as they don't list fractional inches. At the combine, he was listed at 6 feet and 0.5 inches, but the combine rounds to the nearest quarter inch, so depending on how the combine was rounding their results, the difference was at most 0.33 inches.
    • Tyler Weiss:
      • NTDP had him at 180 cm or 5'11. 180 cm is actually 5 feet and 10.87 inches, which the NTDP rounded up to 5'11 as they don't list fractional inches. At the combine, he was listed at 5 feet and 10.5 inches, but the combine rounds to the nearest quarter inch, so depending on how the combine was rounding their results, the difference was at most 0.37 inches.
    So, is it possible Turcotte isn't exactly 6'2? Yes. In fact, the NTDP has him down at 187 cm, which is actually 6 feet and 1.6 inches, which they rounded up to 6'2. Will he end up around 6'1 at the combine due to the slight inconsistencies in measurement practices and rounding? It's certainly possible, but the slight difference doesn't really matter either way.
     
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2018
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  5. Mrb1p

    Mrb1p PRICERSTOPDAPUCK

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    Great post.
     
  6. BigGreenAlum

    BigGreenAlum Registered User

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    Well said Bonney and I can actually expand on that topic - for any potential stats nerd - as EP is indeed confusing and even paid prospect experts don't understand how EP works. In Scott Wheeler of The Athletic's Preseason Top 31 he listed Jack Hughes as the #1 prospect and claimed he had 197 points in 100 games games in 2017-2018 by making the same mistake Bonney described for Turcotte - Wheeler: A tentative preseason look at top 31 prospects for... (subscription required). I was amazed an NHL prospects guru could make such a mistake and I posted the lengthy comment his article - no staff response yet so even these expert might continue to make the same mistake. My comment is lengthy and delves into more EP nuance like Matthews actually playing 65 games in 2014-2015 in a USA uniform, 60 games are captured in EP USDP stats and NTDP site stats, but he also played 5 games at the WJC-20 for the USA U20 where he was not a member of the NTDP. I suspect as mentioned below the same issue might arise in other nations so I hope EP could clarify with an FAQ or even - as I posted in the comment - have The Athletic do a story on it.

    Scott - you are misreading the NTDP players stats, presumably off elite prospects. Take Jack Hughes for example. He only played 60 games total and his totals for the year can be summed by adding his USDP league stats - 24 GP with the U17 team (US National U17 Team) and 36 games with the U18 team (US National U18 Team) which combine for 40 G, 76 A, 116 PTS. Hughes has 3 other league lines of stats for 2017-2018 listed on his elite prospects page (USHL, WHC-17, WJC-18) but all of these games are already counted in his USDP stats as he was playing for the U17 or U18 squad in these other league stats. If you don't remove the duplicate stats and just sum all 5 league lines you get 100 games and 197 points as you cite in the article but that is not accurate. His 116 point USDP season is second all-time to Matthews' 117 season in 2014-2015. This is his stat line on the NTDP site reflecting the 116 points: www.usahockeyntdp.com/roster_players/22378493

    For the 2018-2019 season when Hughes plays in the WJC-20 these stats will not be included in his USDP stats because the US WJC-20 team is not part of the USDP. Matthews 2014-2015 season for example was 60 games with the USDP U18 team and another 5 games with the WJC-20 team for a total of 65 games played. His USHL and WJC-18 stats for that year are already counted in his US National U18 team stats listed under the USDP league line in elite prospects because he was a member of the U18 team when playing in the USHL and WJC18.

    It took me awhile a few years ago to figure this out at least for the NTDP players stats. I suggest you contact the eliteprospects team to understand exactly how they list their stats for all leagues so you avoid this type of error going forward. I hope the article gets corrected once you do as it is misleading to say the least. Another example is Cole Caufield had 54 goals in 59 games, not 77 G in 91 GP.

    Frankly, The Athletic should publish an article on "How To Read eliteprospects Stats" and list all potential nuances with their stat lines as it can be confusing and your subscribers would benefit from someone clarifying any eliteprospects ambiguities. I am very surprised that The Athletic hockey group doesn't yet have a handle on reading eliteprospects stats.
     
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  7. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    Wheeler is one of the biggest hacks in the industry. During the 2015-16 season, I had to explain in the Pension Plan Puppets comment section how Matthew Tkachuk's numbers and Jeremy Bracco's numbers at the USNTDP were not comparable by Draft year and D-1. Due to the USNTDP being set up by age which goes by the January 1st cut off and not the September 15th cut-off. He simply deleted my comment and slightly edited his article. I thought that was a pretty wack thing to do. Atleast say thanks for the information, and don't scrub the info. But, I guess he can't face he's incompetent.
     
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  8. BigGreenAlum

    BigGreenAlum Registered User

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    Don't know much about Wheeler but to say Jack Hughes played 100 games last year is the biggest faux pas - much bigger than misreading EP - because every literally prospect fan (let alone someone whose job is to report on prospects) knows NTDP teams play about 60 games a year. To not have the thought of "wait, 100 games doesn't add up" cross his mind for the #1 prospect is mind boggling beyond belief.
     
  9. 93LEAFS

    93LEAFS Registered User

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    He's an idiot. I don't know why the Athletic hired him. I think he wants to be the millennial Damian Cox.
     
  10. Blade Paradigm

    Blade Paradigm Registered User

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    The web page you linked to now states that Turcotte is 5'11'', 189 lbs. Perhaps the 6'2'' measurement was an error, or a typo by someone updating the chart.
     
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  11. AmericanDream

    AmericanDream Adopted Canadian

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    many other drops as well....not sure what the hell happened on that first listing.
     
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  12. William H Bonney

    William H Bonney Registered User

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    Yep, just saw that. They adjusted a ton of player heights/weights after their original listings. My guess is they incorrectly converted the measurements (i.e. centimeters to feet/inches), but it's USAH so the levels of incompetence are boundless. They don't (intentionally) inflate measurements, but they always find creative ways to screw things up.
     
  13. Pavel Buchnevich

    Pavel Buchnevich AV AND GORTON OUT

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    Quiet AAPG compared to his usual play, but had two nice assists.
     
  14. Goulet17

    Goulet17 Registered User

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    Is Turcotte injured?
     
  15. Juxtaposer

    Juxtaposer Outro: Divina Comedia

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    He has to be. I haven’t seen him in the U18 lineup for a while now.
     
  16. Mickey the mouse

    Mickey the mouse Registered User

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    Yes he is.
    Happened before Fall Classic. I think it happened while playing Muskegon
     
  17. Goulet17

    Goulet17 Registered User

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    Any idea about the nature and/or extent of the injury?
     
  18. Mickey the mouse

    Mickey the mouse Registered User

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    Nothing major but Not 100% sure ......Soft tissue, heard Hip Flexor or lower abdomen muscle.
     
  19. Whalers Fan

    Whalers Fan Go Habs!

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    Thanks. I was wondering -- didn't see him on the ice last night when we attended the game against Michigan at Yost, so I checked the box score and noticed he didn't play against Notre Dame on Sunday, either. Hopefully he's back soon.
     
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  20. AmericanDream

    AmericanDream Adopted Canadian

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    seems minor likely back this coming weekend.
     
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  21. Pavel Buchnevich

    Pavel Buchnevich AV AND GORTON OUT

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    Back in the lineup today. Some moron nearly re-injures him here with a completely uncalled for hit.

     
  22. Whalers Fan

    Whalers Fan Go Habs!

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    Turcotte really struggled skating to the bench after the hit. I was surprised to see him back on the ice so quickly, and he seemed to have no ill effects.
     
  23. Pavel Buchnevich

    Pavel Buchnevich AV AND GORTON OUT

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    Re-injured in his first game back after missing a month. Probably from that hit. Frustrating season for Turcotte.

     
  24. Dominance

    Dominance 99664987 Sponsor

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    Did they rush him back? That’s not something I think anyone could usually accuse the USDP of.

    That really sucks for Turcotte. He’s already missed a huge chunk of the season and wasn’t ever 100% in the handful of games he did get into.
     
  25. Pavel Buchnevich

    Pavel Buchnevich AV AND GORTON OUT

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    It’s hard to know. The original injury’s supposedly wasn’t a serious injury, so I suspect he wasn’t rushed back because he missed over a month for a non-serious injury.

    The hit above could’ve reaggrevated the earlier injury or maybe it was a new injury. It’s also possible the injury didn’t happen on that play.
     
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