D Ville Heinola - Lukko U20, Jr. A SM-Liiga (2019, 20th, WPG)

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by mymerlincat, Jul 13, 2018.

  1. HOPE

    HOPE Goal Caufield!

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    i mean he's a VERY good D prospect i wouldn't be upset if they draft him unless theres a foward that im realy high on that is still there. But he has question Mark like almost every single Dman you draft, wich is why i personnaly like to draft fowards in the first round, if you look around the league the amount of top D's that slip in the second round is phenomenal, They take longer to develop and harder to predict the final product. But yeah After Byram for the LHD Harley is easily my favorite one. He reminds me alot of Chabot in his draft year! Chabot took some HUGE stride tho lol
     
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  2. Pavel Buchnevich

    Pavel Buchnevich AV AND GORTON OUT

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    They were a good team and he put up good point totals. I don't think what I said is wrong. Being the highest scoring defenseman doesn't mean he's the best offensive defensemen prospect to come out of the league, and there actually isn't such a great track record of Liiga producing a lot of good defensemen.

    I'm comparing him to Lundkvist because I view them as having similar limited upside. Average size, some offense, some defense, good hockey IQ, good skating, but no part of their game will definitely make them a top four defensemen. I think both have second round level upside, but will go in the first round due to having good draft seasons. In Lundkvist's case, he went 28th. I think Heinola will go somewhere in the 15-25 range, which is a little higher. He also played at the WJC20, and played well there. Lundkvist didn't get that boost in his draft stock.

    Similarly to Heinola, Lundkvist also had a bad WJC18. I'm not saying they are the exact same player or that I'd say the best comparable for Heinola is Lundkvist, but I don't want my team picking two players who project similarly in the first round in back to back years. I don't like taking one of these types of players to begin with. I think all these players are projects, so the "higher floor" mantra for why some prefer these types of players doesn't make much sense to me. You can find many bottom half of the lineup players in free agency every offseason. Why would you try to draft these players instead of players who can be in the top half of the lineup players? You can't acquire those players as easily.
     
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  3. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    People value offense/production way too heavily in deciding what a dman's ceiling can be. It drives me crazy to see conclusions like "doesn't have enough offense to be a top pairing d."

    Heinola is great once his team is in the offensive zone, but unlike effective offensive NHL defensemen, he's not very good at getting his team from the defensive zone to the offensive zone. 8 of his 14 points in Liiga came on the power play this year. His defensive game is still full of holes as well, and I don't think he will have a positive impact on that side, either.
     
  4. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    I'd say that people value offensive production too little for defensemen. Year by year we see defensemen with high production picked too late, for whatever reason. Some recent examples are 2015 Vince Dunn, 2016 Sam Girard. As has been said, pure eliteprospects-scouting based on nothing but point production would outperform NHL scouts with defensemen. And how is Heinola not very effective at getting his team from the defensive zone to the offensive zone? In the playoffs, too, Heinola received more defensive draws than offensive ones and his advanced stats have been positive, though not amazing.

    It also isn't "regular shifts", it's an all-time great, historical season in Liiga by Heinola. Since returning from injury, if a forward produced at the same rate they'd be a mid-late first round pick at latest.
     
  5. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    The importance of production in NHL defensemen is also very overrated and has a smaller correlation with actual offensive impact among defensemen for a variety of reasons including: a much higher share of secondary points in defensemen than forwards, a higher share of power play points where their role at the point is secondary to the two half wall positions, as well as the increasing realization among hockey statisticians that the outcomes of point shots are inefficient and unfavorable and are as likely to result in an odd man rush the other way as a goal for. Heinola's whopping 2.6 shooting percentage in Liiga this year is fairly typical of inefficient distance shooters.

    Heinola doesn't make quick, smart decisions under pressure and his poor acceleration hurts his ability in transition. A forward who scored 6 ES points in 498 minutes would not be rated as a mid first. Saarela scored at the same p/g as Heinola in the regular season with far less ice time per game and power play usage, and 90% of his points at ES instead of 43% like Heinola, and almost no one has him in even the second round this year. I am in favor of heavily valuing production for forwards, but not for defensemen. Not when over half is on the PP and his team had a below average PP anyway.

    (Girard is statistically not an effective NHL defenseman either. He has a negative impact on both sides of the ice, and doesn't even score at an average rate for defensemen at 5 on 5. People literally only like him because he's entertaining.)
     
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  6. jvr32

    jvr32 Registered User

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    Heinola has higher upside than Lundkvist, and writing that Heinola has 3rd pairing upside is a terrible take. While Heinola did not impress many in this tournament, he still showed good flashes of why he will be a good mid first round pick. What I never saw from Lundkvist in his draft year that I see with Heinola is that Heinola is much commanding and brave with the puck in the offense zone. More than once I saw Heinola skate behind the opposition goal with the puck on his stick looking for passing lanes and trying to make plays happen. He reads the play very well and understands which plays are about to happen, and this isn't just restricted to offensive zone but applies in the neutral zone too. He makes controlled exits and reads quickly where to play the puck. He is very composed. Lundkvist was defensively better in his tournament respectively, but I don't doubt that side of Heinola's game much as he has already shown that quality in Liiga and WJC. He has a high hockey IQ. Liked Lundkvist too last year, but his offensive upside always was more limited.
     
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  7. ProspectsFanatic

    ProspectsFanatic KK

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    I don't like his speed/size combo when speaking of a high-end pick, limits his ceiling, his hockey IQ is excellent but nothing out of the ordinary that would make me place him top20, his shot is weak too which limits his game further, poor physical game at this point. Becomes interesting late 1st round/early 2nd.
     
  8. Koijari

    Koijari Kaapo Di Tutti I Capi

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    Hope the Pens draft him.
     
  9. mymerlincat

    mymerlincat Global Moderator

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    Welcome to Winnipeg!
     
  10. FinPanda

    FinPanda Kaapo "Kappo" Kakko #24

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    Winnipeg drafts a Finn.. no surprise here.
     
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  11. Aldo Montoya

    Aldo Montoya Registered User

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    I wanted Montreal to take him before the draft, but Kreb and Caufield were available unexpectedly.

    I still might have taken him, I think he's a steal.
     
  12. untouchable21

    untouchable21 I am not the guy you want to be wrong about.

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    Would have had your wish!!! Happy with this selection for the Jets.
     
  13. 5cotland

    5cotland HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    I would have. Great pick for the Jets. They should be very happy with what they got with that 20th pick.
     
  14. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    I think he's been inexplicably underrated all season long. Super impressive season, improved throughout and especially crushed in the spring.
     
  15. jetsforever

    jetsforever Registered User

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    Hope he pans out
     
  16. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    It is not about production by NHL defensemen. It's about how production by a prospect before NHL historically collerates with NHL success. Highly productive defensemen tend to be successful in NHL, and at least some years ago drafting purely by statwatching was outperforming actual drafts - not sure about how it is more recently, though.
     
  17. lakai17

    lakai17 Registered User

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    Another slick steal by the Jets.
     
  18. FinPanda

    FinPanda Kaapo "Kappo" Kakko #24

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    Heinola was my favourite player in this years draft after Kakko. Good to see him go to a good organization like Winnipeg. You got a good one.
     
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  19. Trinity

    Trinity Registered User

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    I know he's listed as LD, but for those who watch him closely, does he ever play RD?
     
  20. MattiasSnall

    MattiasSnall Registered User

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    Congrats Jets! Had him as 3rd best D and as Top 15 pick, Great IQ and makes good decisions with the puck, good movement as well, all in all great potential to be a really good player!
     
  21. MardyBum

    MardyBum Registered User

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    He played a lot of RD with Lukko this year.
     
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  22. Trinity

    Trinity Registered User

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    Thank you. So you think he'd be comfortable playing RD in the NHL? I know he's a few years away but Jets have a more pressing need at RD.
     
  23. Afterburner

    Afterburner Jet Fuel Sponsor

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    Finnipeg :thumbu:
     
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