Divisional Final - Chicago Shamrocks vs. Portage Lakes Hockey Club

Discussion in 'All Time Draft' started by BenchBrawl, Apr 16, 2019.

  1. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    As I said, it significantly decreases value of some players.
    Look at Ullman. His standard VxV is 89.5. By standard measure 70/30 he should be 62-63, but he is 66. If we go from his ES VxV it gives us 94,3 standard VxV - and the difference between him and Schmidt = 7.4 - pretty significant (and it's exactly what I said in my previous analysis).

    Let's go further and look at Leclair. His ES VxV is 64. So, his standard VxV should have been somewhere around 91.4. In real life it's only 81.7 (!!!).

    Yes, ES and PP has it's own features. Sometimes 70/30 ratio works. Sometimes doesn't. I can't agree with the way you look at it - just pure standard VxV points. It simplify our analysis to the point, where too many nuances are missed. Of course, there may be different approach to ATD and players estimation, but I definitely prefer more complex picture.

    Let's look at goals standard VxV then.

    Geoffrion 51.2
    Lafleur 47.2
    Ullman 46.7
    Schmidt 36.9
    Elias 36.6
    Olmstead n/a

    Assists:
    Lafleur 71.5
    Olmstead 66.4
    Schmidt 65.7
    Ullman 62.7
    Geoffrion 60.6
    Elias 53.2

    It seems, that your 1st line offensive output comes from assists mostly. Your players' points superiority is superiority of playmakers. But to score a point from an assists you need somebody to finish your pass. Who will finish Lafleur's passes? Schmidt, who were playmaker himself? Elias with his 2 top-10 goals finishes? And if Lafleur is prime finisher in your 1st line (he is capable of it, he was great goal-scorer himself) it makes him only distant second offensive threat between our 1st lines' players behind Geoffrion.
    My point is - you can't take all Lafleur assists into account because you don't have player in your line who is capable to finish all of them. Some of them will be missed, cause your 1st line players don't have tools to utilize that much assists.

    Probably, it's too complicated for ATD and better approach will be - let's just sum our players' points and see who has the most. But I'd rather not analyse anything at all, than "analyze" it this way.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2019
  2. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    As I said, at first, we must estimate Leclair's ES numbers or adjust his numbers to 70/30 ratio, which gives us 91.4.

    Second, I don't know where 97.3 for Malone came from, that's why I can't comment on that (I don't know what consolidated points are and how they are calculated).

    Third, our long-suffering Pitre:) His defensive game (from his bio, linked to his name in my roster):
    "Didier Pitre was sensational on defense," La Presse reported".
    "During the overtime Lalonde and Pitre moved back on defence and proved impregnable".
    "With their regular defence men suspended it seemed that Canadiens would hardly make much of a showing in the final game at Ottawa. However, the veterans Didier Pitre and Joe Malone put on astonishing display. [...] Pitre was playing his last game and the veteran of nineteen years in hockey did a great job on defence".
    "By 1921, the Canadiens had so much depth at forward, and an opening on defence due to the death of future Hall of Famer Joe Hall in the influenza epidemic, so they decided to try Pitre as a defenceman; not as difficult a transition as one might think, because he had previously been a "Rover" during the days of "seven man" hockey".
    He is also known for skating backwards as fast as forwards. I don't think he skated backwards that fast just for entertaining purposes :)

    His offensive game:
    “Cannonball” Pitre was an awesome offensive machine who could score almost at will.
    In his prime, the dominating right-winger scored better than a goal per game, registering five 20-goal campaigns with the Canadiens during the team’s NHA years.
    Pitre’s 27 goals in 1911-12 put him in second place among all NHA skaters. The following season, he got 24...
    Rejoining the Canadiens in 1914-15, he proved that he hadn’t left his scoring touch on the West Coast, netting a career-high 30 goals. The following year, he continued his offensive productivity, notching 24 tallies during the regular season. He also became adept at feeding his teammates, picking up 15 assists in a time when assists were almost as rare as helmets.
    The NHA folded after the 1916-17 season and a new league rose from the debris to fill the demand for high-level hockey. The 34-year-old Pitre had slowed down somewhat but he was still a potent offensive force, scoring 61 times in the NHL’s first four years of play".
    "Pitre was one of hockey's first high-priced stars, a man not averse to holding out ever-higher pay. One year, he signed for a whooping 3,000$, at a time the average salary was about 500$".
    So, you wanna tell me, that a player with stable offensive output, multiple 1st places goals/scoring finishes, who earned 6 times more than average player had his VxV 3 points LOWER, than Dillon, who had 2 (TWO) top-10 point finishes (4, 5) during his whole career? Sorry, I don't buy it. Smth is wrong with VxV calculations or interpretations or whatever here.

    Schriner points VxV:
    91.3
    Savard points VxV:
    85.5

    Schriner goals VxV:
    44.3
    Savard goals VxV:
    33.3

    Schriner assists VxV:
    57.1
    Savard assists VxV:
    66.4

    As we see, Schriner's advantage over Savard comes from goal-scoring. He is far above in goal-scoring, but also far behind in assists.

    The same for Dillon. He is 43.6 in goals, but he is not in the list in assists.

    That's a reverse situation from your 1st line. You first line needs finisher, but your second line needs a passer.
    Your VxV points advantage comes from goal-scoring of all three players of you line. That's not how is it going in real life - you can't have a line of 3 players, who score more goals, than gives assists:) This is what I pointed before as well:)

    Also, and I said it too, your second line lacks puck-retrieving, forecheking and rebounds skills. You can't dump puck into the zone, you can't win corner/boards battle once you lose/dump your puck, you can't press you opponent in their own zone and you have nobody to score from rebounds.

    I'll continue tomorrow.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2019
  3. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    From Savard's bio:
    "Savard's newfound responsibilities as a two-way forward meshed well with his offensive abilities, but it also taught him a valuable lesson. "I scored 28 goals in my first two seasons in Montreal," he states. "I concentrated more on defense and playing at both ends of the ice and it prolonged my career. I say to players today, 'If you're able to make that adjustment, especially when you're an offensive player, you can prolong your career by being able to play on both ends of the ice.' "
    So, as I stated before, he was defensively responsible. Statement, that he contributed nothing defensively is incorrect.
     
  4. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    "aggressive and hard-working approach to checking opponents"
    "the two-way standout who excelled at backchecking, killing penalties, working the corners"
    "Known for his incredible shadowing of the other team's superstars"
    "his tenacious checking and excellent speed... playing strong defense - he was even placed as a forward among defensemen when the Blueshirts were playing with a five-on-three disadvantage... He wasn't afraid to go into the corners and dig the puck out"
    "He was recognized as the premier defensive forward of his generation"
    "he was most noted for his defensive play, and that, along with his excellent penalty killing capabilities, is what kept him employed in the NHL for such a long time"
    "He was a great checker and despite an awkward skating style had surprising speed"
    "was known for his robust bodychecks and his hard shot... "
    "someone had to accept the unglamorous checking role. It was a job [] did very well with a hustling and aggressive style."
    "we played against Beliveau's line or Mikita's line or Delvecchio's line"
    "There are few better checkers, he is a fairly high scorer and he does a commendable job of killing penalties. He is the kind of player you miss most when you don't have him on the bench for emergency chores."
    "strong in the corners and a good passer, and has been one of the better checkers among left wings since he has been in the league."
    "hell of a good skater, strong, and dedicated."
    "Where he truly excelled was in shutting down the opposition's best players"

    That's quotes from Provost' bio and Prentice' bio, random order. Can you distinguish between them?:) Probably, Provost has an edge here, but he is not "much" better, than Prentice.
     
  5. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    The only player in my team, who can be accused of getting caught out of position trying to make big hit is young Pronovost. Later in his career he became more intelligent and stopped doing this. He was good enough to play with Kelly and it seems, that Park is a perfect partner for him.
    The fact, that Potvin and Reardon were great open ice hitters doesnt mean that they could be caught out of position - there is no evidence on that. Both were prized for their defensive game. It won't happened if they were caught out of position any significant amount of times.
    The same can be said about Stevens, BTW.
    I don't think its worth arguing about Park "trying make big hits".
     
  6. Dreakmur

    Dreakmur Registered User

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    Ken Reardon was a maniac. Definately not a player who could be called positionally sound or reliable. He is an impact player, but a high risk one.

    Personally, I wouldn’t have him on either of my PK units. You have better options.
     
  7. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    I'll continue with forwards and later (the next day, probably) will move to defense.

    Zach Parise - Edgar Laprade - Ryan Kesler
    vs
    Joe Klukay - Pit Lepine - Floyd Curry

    Parise seems a bit off your line, but I'd rather not say that he is that strange here. He was good, though not great defensively and his ES VxV is pretty high for 4th liner in this ATD. His goal-scoring match Laprade play-making nicely and Kesler looks good here with his decent for 4th liner offence and great defense.

    Defensively my line is superior, because non of your line is stand out defensively and any player on my line is better than Parise defensively.

    Probably, I'd rate Lepine as the best defensively here (quotes about "the best defensive forward ever, the best shadow and 3 retro selke for what it's worth). He is also second best offensive player out of our bottom lines after Parise (3 times #10 in goals). But I wouldn't call his defensive advantage decisive. Kesler seems to be on par with Klukay and Curry defensively.

    Offensively your line is clearly ahead.

    The main problem for me - how will you use your 4th line in ES? Parise is not ATD-good for shutdown role and overall offensive output is not that much to use it as scoring threat.

    Anyway, it's your advantage offensively and mine - defensively.
     
  8. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    Defense.
    1st pair
    Stevens - Kelly
    vs
    Potvin - Reardon
    I can agree, that Potvin is more or less = Kelly, though, I have Potvin slightly ahead - he was more important to his team and had more serious competition.
    Stevens - Reardon.
    Stevens: All-stars team: 1 (2nd in voting), 1 (2nd in voting), 2 (4th in voting), 2 (4th), 2 (4th)
    Reardon: All-stars team: 1 (1st in voting - retro Norris), 1 (2nd), 2 (3d), 2 (3d), 2 (4th). His Norris record could have been smth like 1, 2, 3, 3, 4.
    At the end of his short career Reardon was 2nd among defensemen in points and 2nd in assists.
    At the end of his long career Stevens was 7th in points and 6th in assists.
    Reardon stats from his bio:
    Points among Defensemen – 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 9th
    Goals among Defensemen – 3rd, 3rd, 7th
    Assists among Defensemen – 1st, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 9th
    Tell me, how many #2 ATD D-men have better all-stars (Norris) AND offensive record?
    The only thing there against Reardon is longevity. He played too shortly. There is an interesting thing with Reardon longevity though. If you wanna give Schmidt and Colvill credit for what they didn't do (playing during war years) you absolutely should do this to Reardon and it makes my 1st pair easily comfortably ahead of Shamroks one. Cause Reardon missed some years because of WWII.
    But Im not a fan of what if games.
    So, during his short peak Reardon was better, than Stevens. He rated higher in all-stars votings and was better offensively. It's longevity only, that gives Stevens an edge. But, considering Reardon great peak, it's a very small edge.
     
  9. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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  10. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    3d pair:
    Jim Neilson - P.K. Subban
    vs
    Mike Ramsey - Art Duncan

    Neilson. All-stars: 4, 6, 6, 9
    Ramsey. All-stars: 6, 8, 13, 14, 16

    Neilson finished in scoring among defensemen pretty high: 4, 5, 7, 8, 11, 12. Ramsey is clearly behind here.

    Both were prized for defensive game. Ramsey was called the best defensive defenseman in 1990 and mentioned in "best short-blockers" category. Both were tough-hitting, but clean players.
    It seems, that both were excellent defensively, but better offense gives an edge to Neilson here.

    Duncan
    vs
    Subban

    Subban is known for his offensive game primarily. He is not a defensive stalwart though.
    From what I read from Duncan' biography, it seems, that he was more defensively reliable, than Subban.
    As for offense, Duncan was the only defenseman, not named Orr who scored the most points in one season. His scoring finishes are:

    Pacific Coast Hockey League [1915-16;1918-24] *REGULAR SEASON*
    Top-10 Scoring (1st, 9th, 10th)
    Top-10 Goalscoring (1st, 8th)
    Top-10 Assist (1st, 3rd, 4th, 9th, 10th)

    Top-10 Scoring Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, 7th)
    Top-10 Goalscoring Among Defenseman (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th)
    Top-10 Assist Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 9th)
    Top-10 Penalty Minutes Among Defenseman (6th, 6th)

    Pacific Coast Hockey League [1915-16;1918-24] *PLAYOFFS*
    Top-10 Scoring (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd)
    Top-10 Goalscoring (1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th)
    Top-10 Assist (1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
    Top-10 Penalty Minutes (1st, 3rd, 6th)

    Top-10 Scoring Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd)
    Top-10 Goalscoring Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd)
    Top-10 Assist Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 2nd, 3rd)
    Top-10 Penalty Minutes Among Defenseman (1st, 1st, 3rd)

    National Hockey League [1926-30] *AGES 35-39*
    Top-10 Scoring Among Defenseman (7th, 10th)
    Top-10 Goalscoring Among Defenseman (7th, 9th)
    Top-10 Assist Among Defenseman (5th, 8th)
    Top-10 Penalty Minutes Among Defenseman (4th)

    I think, he might have been better, than Subban both offensively and defensively.

    Considering, how tough is to compare old-timers to modern players, I'd call our 3d pair a wash.
     
  11. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    Goaltending
    Tretiak
    vs
    Sawchuk
    Tretiak on HF is some mystery to me. Usually, HF tends to overrate Soviets, who played good against Canada. But Tretiak was perfect against Canada, has a perfect list of European achievements and still is vastly underrated here.
    He is at least not worse than Sawchuk.
     
  12. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    Coaching.
    Shero
    vs
    Arbor

    I think, Arbor is ahead, a tier above Shero.
    Also, the best results came to Shero with "goon" hockey and Chicago Shamrocks are absolutely not this type of a team.
     
  13. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    Special Teams
    PP1: Schriner - Malone - Lafleur - Subban - Kelly

    vs
    PP1: Olmstead - Ullman - Geoffrion - Potvin - Duncan
    Defensemen are equal. Lafleur is slightly ahead of Geoffrion. Very hard to compare Malone and Ullman. Ullman PP finishes are 3, 4, 5, 7 - pretty good.
    Interesting, that Schriner PP goal finishes are 3, 5, 6, 9. Olmstead' 3, 4, 7, 9.
    So, it's not that one-sided as it seems from the first sight, but it's Chicago solid advantage nevertheless.


    PP2: Elias - Schmidt - Parise - Gardiner - Boucher

    vs
    PP2: Leclair - Savard - Pitre - Roenick - Park
    there is no data for Elias PP goals finishes. Leclair': 2, 4, 4, 5.
    Parise: 4, 8
    Roenick: 3, 4, 9
    Pitre with his shot and D experience at point looks at least not worse, than any D
    Schmidt and Savard look equal.
    Park definitely stands out.
    It seems, its my advantage with Park makes the difference.

    PK1: Kesler - Dillon - Stevens - Neilson
    vs
    PK1: Klukay - Curry - Potvin - Ramsey

    Stevens 56% SH usage. Neilson 43%
    Potvin 53% Ramsey 49%

    Number of times on the top PK pairing of a top 3 PK in the league since 1967:
    Dennis Potvin (5 times)
    Mike Ramsey (4 times)
    Scott Stevens (4 times)

    Ramsey was prized for his PK abilities. From his bio:
    "the Buffalo teams he spent most of his career on were generally at or near the top of the league in PKing"

    From what I read from his bio, Dillon seems to be the weak link here. He was mentioned couple of times as PKer, but others (Kesler, Klukay, Curry) are prized as outstanding PKers.

    My advantage.

    PK2: Laprade - Provost/Colville - Gardiner - Boucher

    vs
    PK2: Prentice - Lepine - Park - Reardon
    Interesting, that nothing in Provost' bio indicates that he was a good PKer. His SH usage though is 77% (can it be mistake?).
    Looks like a wash to me.
     
  14. Hawkey Town 18

    Hawkey Town 18 Registered User

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    You built a good team this year @Namba 17
    Sorry I didn't have time to reply to all of your posts, but glad I was able to find some time to do some comparison/analysis.
     
    Namba 17 likes this.
  15. Namba 17

    Namba 17 Registered User

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    Congratulations @Hawkey Town 18! Thank you for the game and good luck!
     
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