GDT: Game 24 - CBJ vs PHI - 27 Nov, 7pm, @Nat

Discussion in 'Columbus Blue Jackets' started by Viqsi, Nov 27, 2019.

  1. ViD

    ViD #CBJNeedHugs

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    Let’s be honest here for a second - the first three haven’t impressed me to a point where I’d clearly say they are future stars of the team, the only reason they get NHL time is because we’re absolutely depleted at FWD, they won’t get By ice time in other teams. I reserve my opinion on Robinson for now, I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far but it’s been too few games
     
  2. ViD

    ViD #CBJNeedHugs

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    The biggest issue for the Jackets right now is offense and a back up goalie.

    Our top 6 defense is among the best in the league. Literally everyone of the top 6 have been playing solid. Werenski doing forwards job as well.

    Korpisalo has looked good as of late and won the starter job for the foreseeable future.

    Now, our offense is absolutely terrible. Other than flashes of brilliance by PLD there’s nothing to write home about. Nyquist has been OK, but not more than that. Bjorkstrand is probably playing at his level and we can’t ask for more. Wennberg has played less impressive lately. Atkinson and Anderson are simply bad.

    We have close to zero offensive creativity on this team and have to rely on hard working, often garbage goals.
     
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  3. CBJ AZ goalie

    CBJ AZ goalie Registered User

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    Yeah, not to beat a dead horse, but another reason for the CBJ lack of success is the goalie.
    Although Korpisalo played well, that 3rd goal should have been stopped....look at the replay and see his body language. He knows it.
    As long as goals like that are going in, plus their lack of scoring, this team ain't going anywhere this season.
    Still fun to watch, but after this first quarter season, I'm lessening my expectations.
     
  4. OscarsCards

    OscarsCards Never go full Sabres!

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    (10*2+4)/(24*2)=0.500
     
  5. Monstershockey

    Monstershockey Registered User

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    Torts may be a dinosaur or whatever you want to call him, but he has a team that deserves to be way below .500 with the way they play, right at .500. Is it because of him the guys are slumping, maybe, maybe not. He has given, and continues to give them time to play out of it. The Indians did the same thing with Jose Ramirez, he was awful for the first half of the season, they kept playing him and he finally got out of his slump and really ended up with a fine year. A couple guys start to play like they are capable of, and this is a different team.
     
  6. Iron Balls McGinty

    Iron Balls McGinty HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    The Indians also missed the playoffs after making it 3 years in a row.
     
  7. EspenK

    EspenK Registered User

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    Just watched the game via the magic of dvr. I thought Jackets played well but they missed a lot of great scoring chances. Elliot was pretty darn good. Guess it was just same old same old - lack of scorers did them in.
    Now 7 points out of the last wild card spot. TB and Toronto appear to be righting the ship so I figure both of them will be in so unless Florida & Philly collapse I think the Jackets are toast.
     
  8. EDM

    EDM Registered User

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    I was so disgusted last nite that I left early with five minutes left. I knew they would never tie it. I am losing patience.
     
  9. Monstershockey

    Monstershockey Registered User

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    Yes they did. But they were also 11 games out in early June, made a run and actually took over 1st place for a day and then injuries hit and they didn't have enough to get there. If half the league made the playoffs like they do in hockey, they would have been in.
     
  10. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    I don't think they're a creative offense but they've been creating their share of chances. Did you watch the third last night? It wasn't the problem. Josh twice had shots where you could see a lot of net and he missed by inches, and Milano missed by not even an inch. That's finishing, not creativity.
     
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  11. Cowumbus

    Cowumbus Registered User

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    I get the math dude..You’re just missing the point.
     
  12. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    Play that game all you want. Their opponents miss by inches and hit posts, too.
     
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  13. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Not in this one. The Jackets had way more.

    Jackets are at 70% in the deserve-to-win-o-meter. That means given the distribution of chances, they win 70% of the simulations.

    They're 4-2 in the last 6. Deserved to lose in Montreal, comfortably deserved to win both losses, and the Ottawa game was 50-50. No not every game is even in near misses.
     
  14. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    If the "deserve-to-win-o-meter" is worth a damn it will reflect a team's record not some esoteric, contrived statistic(s).
     
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  15. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    The whole rationale of fancy stats is that there are better predictors of a team's future record than the team's previous record, and the stuff built off of expected goals is the best predictor yet.
     
  16. Cowumbus

    Cowumbus Registered User

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    You’re expected goals calculator has (in order) Milano, Foligno, Anderson, Dubois, Bemstrom as most likely to score. Hmm.
     
  17. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Yes, the ones that whiffed on wide open nets. Pretty smart for a cooked up stat.

    Edit - I forgot that Foligno scored on his wide open net.
     
  18. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    It's a general comment. If this program is regularly showing teams winning who aren't, then it's obviously flawed. The CBJ record this season is not a matter of "bad luck". It's bad play.
     
  19. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    No it would be flawed if it had less predictive power than just looking at who has won and lost so far in the season. It has more predictive power.

    Midway through last year it showed the Blues being a much better team than their record would indicate, and lo and behold they started winning.
     
  20. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    When the CBJ raise the Cup in June, you'll have me convinced.
     
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  21. Double-Shift Lasse

    Double-Shift Lasse Just post better

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    I get it but the predictive application of the "deserved" thing is not binary - it's not "Cup or worst team evah."

    All of which is not to say I'd suggest it's a better fancy stat than any other fancy stat and that it's a be-all-and-end-all. But it's possible to see how people would apply it and everyone has their own level of application -- usually to whatever level it supports their existing point of view.
     
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  22. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    That's obviously not what it suggests, or that the club will necessarily even make the playoffs. I don't think they will.

    Interestingly according to the xG stats, the biggest shortfall for the Jackets on the season as a whole is goaltending not shooting. The shot quality for is low, and we've had exactly as many goals for as expected. The shot quality against is crazy low, lowest in the league. 2.22 xGA / 60, and we're giving up 3.09 GA/60. Our goalies don't even have terrible save percentages but they should be putting up Lehner/Greiss numbers with the improved performance of the D this year.

    Of course this stuff has been changing a lot week to week. If we just look at the last couple weeks, the Jackets are scoring and winning. It's interesting though that they're doing this despite not getting a great goaltending performance. This is supposedly Korpi's hot streak, I believe he's 4-1 with a 2.2 GAA, but the xG stats say he ought to be pulling a GAA of 1.9. *Disclaimer - All I'm looking at here is xGA - GA, in a 6 game sample you can't tell whether the discrepancy is bounces, goaltending, or great shooting by the other team. Over 20+ games, it's goaltending.
     
  23. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    Interesting that the model shows that offense isn't the problem.

    It is essential that one knows constitutes an "expected goal" or "expected save" and what doesn't in order to be able to use a model with any degree of confidence. A 4th liner under pressure who takes a back hand with a wobbly puck from 15 feet from the goal might be the equivalent of an unencumbered McDavid from the same distance. Alexander Wennberg from 15 feet on a one timer is probably the equivalent of Ovechkin from the same distance.

    The assumptions of certain models could easily render them useless (or at least next to it). Unless one knows how the specifics of it, it's almost a act of blind faith to use one to prove something. I can't see any model of much value which shows the CBJ not to be far below average offensively not to be inaccurate.
     
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  24. majormajor

    majormajor Registered User

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    Maybe you weren't following - the xG model says the Jackets should be scoring exactly what they have scored, it's not suggesting they are a great offense.
     
  25. Cyclones Rock

    Cyclones Rock Registered User

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    No. I'm asking about what the parameters of the model is. You missed or ignored my point about these models entirely.
     
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