Keith Tkachuk's Hall of Fame Case

Discussion in 'The History of Hockey' started by Cityswiper, Nov 7, 2019.

  1. sugarspice

    sugarspice Registered User

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    Tkachuk registered nearly 1,100 points in the NHL. 538 goals. He won the World Cup in 96. Silver at the 02 olympics. 5 time NHL All Star. He consistently made team USA teams.

    Yet...it seems he's received very little support to be inducted into the Hockey Hall of Fame. While his playoff track record wasn't great, he still put up well over 500 goals. I'd argue many of his playoff teams weren't that great. So he shouldn't receive too much blame.

    So, will he eventually be enshrined into the HHOF? Should he?
     
  2. ResilientBeast

    ResilientBeast ATD Draft Czar

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    His goal scoring finishes

    1995-96 NHL 50 (7th)
    1996-97 NHL 52 (1st)
    1997-98 NHL 40 (6th)
    2001-02 NHL 38 (7th)
    2003-04 NHL 33 (10th)

    His points finishes

    .......

    All star voting

    2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6

    Hart Voting

    10, 14
     
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  3. Nick Hansen

    Nick Hansen Registered User

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    Phil Kessel has a better case and I don't think he should be in as it stands.
     
  4. Ducks in a row

    Ducks in a row Go Ducks Quack Quack

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    Dave Andreychuk
    Dave Andreychuk Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

    Goals
    1992-93 NHL 54 (9th)
    1993-94 NHL 53 (4th)
    Points
    1993-94 NHL 99 (9th)
    vs.

    Keith Tkachuk
    Keith Tkachuk Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

    Goals
    1995-96 NHL 50 (7th)
    1996-97 NHL 52 (1st)
    1997-98 NHL 40 (6th)
    2001-02 NHL 38 (7th)
    2003-04 NHL 33 (10th)
    Honors
    1994-95 NHL All-Star Team (2nd)
    1997-98 NHL All-Star Team (2nd)

    If Dave Andreychuk is the hall of fame I would say that Keith Tkachuk should be too when he was a better player. Personally I don't think Dave Andreychuk should of made the hall of fame.
     
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  5. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    what kind of hall of fame case is taking the absolute worst player of his position and generation in the hall of fame and say, well hey he’s better than that guy?
     
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  6. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    he might be the worst playoff performer of any superstar ever. wasn’t great is a pretty big understatement.
     
  7. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    So if a player was never top 10 in points they have no points finishes?
     
  8. ESH

    ESH Registered User

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    Do you know of a quick way to find a player’s scoring finishes beyond top-10?
     
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  9. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Probably the easiest way would be the vsx spreadsheet.
     
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  10. Moose Head

    Moose Head Registered User

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    IMO, Propp, Leclair, P. Mahovlich, R. MacLeish, Turgeon, Tonelli, Krutov amongst others have better cases
     
  11. trentmccleary

    trentmccleary Registered User

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    Tkachuk had a lot of injuries, but was generally productive when he did play.

    Here is a comparison between Tkachuk and Iginla. The seasons in which Tkachuk played before Iginla entered the league have been removed from the chart, but Iginla's entire career was entered onto the chart.

    This counts how many times that each player his certain GPG or PPG benchmarks over an entire season.
    GPGJIKTPPGJIKT
    0.60+211.00+54
    0.50-0.59340.90-0.9923
    0.40-0.49430.85-0.8912

    ... and that was with these 3 seasons removed from Tkachuk's totals:
    YearGPGAPtsGPGPPG
    1994844140810.490.96
    1995482229510.461.06
    1996765048980.661.29
     
  12. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Tkachuk's production over his best 10 seasons basically matches Brendan Shanahan's (72 VsX). Over those 10 seasons, Tkachuk missed 59 games while Shanahan missed 36. Over their careers, Tkachuk scored at a rate of 1.37 of his point collaborators, while Shanahan was at 1.27 (meaning Tkachuk generally had worse linemates). I think it is safe to say that Tkachuk was a greater offensive talent and producer than Shanahan, and no one even questions Shanahan as a HHOFer. Like, at all.

    Unlike Shanahan, Tkachuk was also an extremely fearsome and punishing physical player. Shanahan earned a reputation early on and then really mellowed out and coasted on that notoreity. Tkachuk was a major physical presence until the lockout. In the five seasons that RTSS stats that were kept and then swept under the rug by the NHL from 1998 to 2002, Tkachuk was credited with 1.58 hits per game and Shanahan had 1.12. the next two seasons weren't tracked, then in the five seasons after the lockout, it was 1.20 to 0.80 for Tkachuk.

    Of course, Tkachuk had attitude/leadership and penalty problems that Shanahan never did. But the main difference in their resumes is Shanahan won three cups and went deep a few times. He played 95 more playoff games, and scored 78 more points in those games. Was it just circumstance? Was Shanahan so good that he'd have taken the Jets/Coyotes/Blues somewhere? Was Tkachuk so bad that he'd have prevented the Wings from winning a cup? I'd say it's more like, if Shanahan is your third best forward you're an excellent team and if Tkachuk is your best, you are merely OK.

    It doesn't bother me that Tkachuk isn't in the hall. It wouldn't bother me if he got in. He is in the top-10 for retired modern forwards in 7-year VsX, had to do a lot of it himself compared to many of them, and was a more complete player than some of them. But he's also got the worst playoff record of the whole lot.
     
  13. baudib1

    baudib1 Registered User

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    I'd put Roenick and Mogilny in before Tkachuk too.
     
  14. MarkusNaslund19

    MarkusNaslund19 Registered User

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    I don't think Tkachuk is a hall of famer if you were around for his career.

    To be honest, I don't even really think that Roenick necessarily should be. I think being American gets both of them more consideration than they warrant.
     
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  15. vadim sharifijanov

    vadim sharifijanov ugh

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    when did tkachuk ever not have help?

    he went from being centered by zhamnov to janney to roenick to weight to demitra. that's his entire eleven year prime. he never didn't have either an elite center or someone who was really really good at setting him and completely dedicated to it.

    shanahan, meanwhile, once scored 40 goals centered by nelson emerson.

    i think the main difference between them is shanahan was a guy who could adapt to a team game and was infinitely more well rounded as a player. tkachuk was horrendous defensively and generally thought to play a selfish game. the question should really be, was detroit so good that they could win despite tkachuk? answer is probably yes, tbh.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2019
  16. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this in a binary way that Shanahan always had lots of help at center and Tkachuk never did. Just that generally speaking, Shanahan was less likely to outscore his linemates from the wing than Tkachuk. And we're talking about two players with identical prime production (ignoring games missed)
     
  17. TheDevilMadeMe

    TheDevilMadeMe Registered User

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    He's a clear step behind John LeClair in the regular season, in international play, and in the playoffs, playing at the exact same time. And LeClair isn't exactly a lock.
     
  18. ResilientBeast

    ResilientBeast ATD Draft Czar

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    I just took a quick skim on HockeyRef for data wasn't judging the results.

    He wouldn't be the worst player in the Hall by a fair margin
     
  19. seventieslord

    seventieslord Student Of The Game

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    Tkachuk had 246 more points in 234 more games, no Lindros in his prime, so I wouldn't say it's exactly cut and dried that LeClair was a better scorer.

    If you want to just look at primes, LeClair had 14 more adjusted points in 41 more games over their respective eight best seasons.

    LeClair had 33 more points in 65 more playoff games, is that really better? He scored less per game, in a larger sample.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  20. The Roy Of Ottawa

    The Roy Of Ottawa HOCKEY HALL OF FAME

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    Tkachuk will be inducted!

    Retired 500+ NHL Goal Scorers Not In The Hockey Hall Of Fame Yet


    01. Jaromir Jagr (766) Eligible in 2021
    02. Jarome Iginla (625) Eligible in 2020
    03. Keith Tkachuk (538) - Eligible since 2013
    04. Marian Hossa (525) - Eligible in 2020
    05. Pat Verbeek (522) - Eligible since 2005
    06. Pierre Turgeon (515) - Eligible since 2010
    07. Jeremy Roenick (513) - Eligible since 2012
    08. Peter Bondra (503) - Eligible since 2010
     
  21. The Panther

    The Panther Registered User

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    You're talking about the guy who slept with his teammate's wife... I guess that's a kind of "adapting".
     
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  22. The Panther

    The Panther Registered User

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    Interesting. The top 2 guys there are obviously slam-drunks, no questions asked.

    But from 3 to 8...? I don't really see it, myself. But it will be difficult to make a legit case against Tkachuk since he's at 538 and since Andreychuk is in. Fortunately, the Hall isn't about legitimacy.
     
  23. vikash1987

    vikash1987 Registered User

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    I think his playoff record speaks for itself, and is the main reason holding him back from the Hall
     
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  24. MXD

    MXD Original #4

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    - Tkachuk's "numerical" regular season case is clearly inferior to Marian Hossa's regular season case (and, by "clearly", I mean that it's obviously worse, not that there's a gulf between them)

    - RS Numbers is one of the most favourable comparison basis vs. Hossa for Tkachuk, unless physicality is deemed to be a standalone comparison basis.

    - I suppose Marian Hossa will get in the HHOF, though I wouldn't qualify him as a player who has to get in, such as Jarome Iginla.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  25. tarheelhockey

    tarheelhockey Highest Boss

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    I think we'll see him get in eventually. It's like Andreychuk, sooner or later you run short on shoo-in candidates and the numbers game comes into play. The bar just isn't that high, and Tkachuk had just high enough of a peak that it isn't completely offensive to imagine him getting inducted.
     

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