Wins Above Replacement 2.0

Discussion in 'By The Numbers' started by NHL WAR, Jun 23, 2019.

  1. supsens

    supsens Registered User

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    Hmm I don't know, if take aways are counted as good in order to beef up certain players, and give aways are ignored to beef up other players isn't that forcing an outcome you want to see rather than number based facts?
    I am not trying to sound confrontational or negative. I am trying the learn how stats like this are generated. And my brain tells me if take aways are good and contribute to winning give aways have to be bad and result in losing.
    If I steal the puck or you throw my winger the puck by mistake, it results in the same thing.
     
  2. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I see where you are coming from. Ultimately, takeaways seemed to have a slight impact, so I integrated them at a microscopic value. It works out that even the leader only gains 1 "Goal" from it. So giveaways could be added because they usually go hand on hand with takeaways, but their impact would be nonexistent and IMO they would just be noise.
     
  3. supsens

    supsens Registered User

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    Ok thank you sir. I still have a long way to go to fully understand what brings your final number to being so close to actual wins it’s a lot to take in
     
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  4. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    No problem. Just like the game itself, there is a lot going on in the stat. I'd be lying if I said I found the process of making it simple... it sure took me a while! So I completely understand that someone looking at it for the first time will find parts confusing.. let me know if you have anymore questions.
     
  5. morehockeystats

    morehockeystats Unusual hockey stats

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    An average unblocked shot attempt has a probability of approx 6.2% going in.
    The probability for an unblocked shot attempt quickly following a DZ giveaway is about 11.9%
    The probability for an unblocked shot attempt quickly following an OZ takeaway is about 12.2%
     
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