Zach Bogosians contract - are we undervaluing him?

Discussion in 'Winnipeg Jets' started by allan5oh, Jul 28, 2013.

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  1. allan5oh

    allan5oh Has prospect fever

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    I went back a few pages but didn't see a thread specifically on Bogosian. It's interesting how we've been a little far off with the last two big contracts, I'm wondering if we'll be off for Bogosians contract as well.

    Wheeler - 6 years - 5.6 AAV
    Little - 5 years - 4.7 AAV
    Total $10.3 million

    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1460383

    Most guesses seem 200k-700k low for those two each, and I don't think anyone guessed over $10 million total for those two. Is it safe to say we're also undervaluing Bogosian? That's a scary thought, because there's some $6 million guesses on there. We only have $7,466,500 left in cap space, and that includes the bonus cushion*. That's not a lot of room.

    *With the bonus cushion you're allowed to go over the cap by 7.5% in bonuses. If the overage is realized, the overage is deducted from next seasons cap. Needless to say Chevy doesn't want Trouba or Scheifele put us over the cap.

    edit: I also forgot to add, Blake Wheeler let it slip that Bogosian also wants a longer term contract during his conference call.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2013
  2. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    If anything I think we're over valuing him. I think he'll have a 5m cap hit at the high end.
     
  3. KCjetsfan

    KCjetsfan Registered User

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    I agree with Sully. He's the future on the blueline but there's no way he's an mid/upper 6 million $ man right now.
     
  4. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    Would love too see 5 but at least 5.5 will happen
     
  5. surixon

    surixon Registered User

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    I'd be pretty dissapointed if we pay much if any over 5 per year given the contracts signed by other defenseman this summer. His best comparable signed for $4.7 million and he really shouldn't make much more than that.
     
  6. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    Huge potential, so I would be done with paying more later, but as of right now he's not worth that much.

    He's been getting better and is our franchise player of the future, but I think his cap hit should be Byfuglien's.

    I wonder how much he'll get when his contract is up? With seeing how much Letang and Weber got...holy hot ****...
     
  7. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    Bogosian IMHO is the trickiest of the bunch.

    He wants a long term deal, and the team obviously wants to lock him up.

    He has TONS of promise and potential. He is just a great personality and has amazing character. We've seen glimpses of what he can do, but how much more is to come? Will he start developing the offensive side of his game now that his wrist is fixed and he has figured out his own end pretty well? Will his concussion be the start of problems for him or is it a one off?

    This deal is a real tough one for the org. If you are signing 6-8 years, you have to wonder how Bogosian will be performing at the end. Even with an 8 year deal he will be right in his prime when he becomes a UFA.

    I still believe that a healthy Bogosian will be in the Norris conversation year after year after year (especially if they go back to awarding it properly).

    I don't honestly know how you can project what Zach will be worth 3, 4, 5 years down the line. He could be the best defenseman in the NHL.

    I'd do 6 years, 36MM. A little high in the first couple years, probably low in the last few.
     
  8. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    That's WAY high man!

    I'd honestly almost sign him to like four years, see he can do with that.
     
  9. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    I respectfully disagree.
     
  10. King Woodballs

    King Woodballs Captain Awesome

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    I would never do a 4 year.
    Regardless of money

    He will be a 27 year old UFA

    And if he progresses like allot think he can and will. The jets will be priced right out of the rink
     
  11. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    I agree about his potential....but at the end of the day it is just that. Potential. Unknown.

    I'd rather see what the guy can do over this next chunk of time before shelling out big cash for him. Not saying that he won't deserve it, but at this stage 6mil is too much, it may not be when he really finds his game, but for now it is.
     
  12. Analyst365

    Analyst365 Registered User

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    6M is too high based on the bolded. You don't award a contract for an unknown by assuming that he could be THE BEST.

    That's Rick DiPietro territory there.
     
  13. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    That's a bit extreme, but the logic is sound. That's exactly why the Isles did that...and Mike Milbury is stupid.
     
  14. surixon

    surixon Registered User

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    OEL who is currently a superior defenseman and has just as much if not more upside is making 5.5 million. There is no way I consider spending a penny more.
     
  15. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    This is true. I still wouldn't want to
    Pay him that much though.

    If we did 30 over six years that saw his first two years at 4-4.5 and his last two at six...that would be fair.

    I'd even be cool doing 8 years with it ending at 6.5-7, but back loading it to keep that cap hit down.
     
  16. Bob E

    Bob E Registered User

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    Would be a bit high for me, Jet.

    Which likely means its close. :naughty: :laugh:

    I've been about $400 k low on both Little and Wheeler, so i was thinking Bogo is $5.5 on a 7+ yr deal, $5.9 or $6 is likely close.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2013
  17. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    I don't really have much of an argument with most of the responses to my post. That is why it will be a very tricky deal. A few factors make this deal a little harder to gauge, namely:

    I believe too much pressure was put on him early and he wasn't mature enough to handle it.

    He had a very adversarial relationship with an early coach that judging by Zachs personality and character was more likely the coaches problem.

    He has been playing with a pretty significant injury for a couple of years and most likely wasn't playing with full strength and mobility in that wrist even last season.

    I don't at all believe you can compare this with DiPietro, especially considering goaltending is a completely different animal and I would NEVER give a goalie more than a 3 or 4 year deal. I just think they are too volatile. Same reason I would never use my 1st rounder on a goalie, no matter how highly touted they are.

    For me, the only barrier preventing Zach from becoming one of the very best in the NHL is injuries. If he can stay healthy I would bet a lot of money on him getting there.
     
  18. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    You need to factor in how much the cap will be in 5-6 years and what a defenseman who is in his absolute prime as a number one will be paid. I'd venture to guess 6 million dollars for Zach Bogosian in 2018 will be a bargain.
     
  19. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

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    Agreed. IMO Chevy will roll the dice on Bogo and sign him 6-8 years $5.5 - $6.0 M AAV. Bogo is just too important to our future and Chevy has to trust he will keep developing. Can't risk a short term signing and risk losing him in his prime.

    Some people act like the extra 1/2 m or so is going to come out of their pocket. IMO after Bogo signs that is it for this year unless they make a trade. Does it really matter if we are $2 M or $1.5 under the cap? Next year the cap is likely going up 6-7% and Joker comes off the books. Our team will mostly be signed except for Setiguchi and a couple others and we will likely have $ 10-12 M in room.
     
  20. Duke749

    Duke749 Get Well Soon Bryan Little

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    Why do we have to overrate Zach so much??? :shakehead Can't we just let him play and reach his potential without throwing out MASSIVE and maybe somewhat unrealistic expectations??? :help: "Could be the best in the NHL." Seriously??? If Bogosian COULD be the best defenseman in the league, so could 20 other defensemen.
     
  21. sully1410

    sully1410 #EggosForEleven

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    Which is fine...but if you back load the contract it makes his cap hit lower.

    If you did a six contract that went

    4+4.5+5+5.5+6+6= 31

    31/6= 5.16 so about 5.2

    That's a fair contract for him. He hasn't earned 6mil yet, but he probably will, even if you
    wanted to tack on another 2 years that went up to 6.5-7it would be better.

    4+4.5+5+5.5+6+6+6.5+7= 44, 44.5

    44/8= 5.5
    44.5/8= 5.6

    I would be much happier if that was the contract.
     
  22. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    This thread is about trying to ascertain his contract value. So what his ceiling is is VERY germaine to the discussion.
     
  23. Jet

    Jet I love our scrubs!

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    My problem (and most likely Zach's camps) with this is that while the first couple years are fair value, the last 2 will most likely be very under. Hence you pay a little more now and save some later.

    The benefit to this as well is that if we are in a position to contend in 3 or 4 years, Zach's cap hit wont be so prohibitive that we can't go shopping to fill out our roster.
     
  24. Duke749

    Duke749 Get Well Soon Bryan Little

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    I'm not saying it's not, just that post like yours suggest you think he's the 2nd coming of Christ. :laugh:
     
  25. KingBogo

    KingBogo Admitted Homer

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    How about an 8 year $44.44 M contract for a $5.555 AAV.
     
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